I'm curious if you uncovered some concrete steps to implement threatcasting in an organization. For example, the word / idea "simulation" keeps running through my mind as I read about this concept, which I liked very much. But I'm left wondering what you suggest leaders do to implement threatcasting.
That's the million dollar question for sure. There've been a couple ways I've found successful.
The first was writing them into R&D proposals to help the customer better define their threat portfolio. This is specifically Defense focused because the time horizon lines up. This has worked a handful of times and has always been a great customer pleaser.
The second was work in getting it tied into the strategy development sessions. You can do portfolios of futures throughout the year and continue to feed, refine, and update strategy.
A third is to help use them to reduce risk or identify opportunities to improve program performance. This helps for really big programs or product lines where there are a lot of known unknowns or worries bout the unknown unknowns.
Master Card, Intel and Cisco have used Threatcasting and Futurecasting quite extensively over the past years and have really made it part of their strategy and risk management programs.
The IRS, Secret Service, and Accountability Office of the US government also use it to maintain agility and force readiness.
It's not easy though. "We already do that." is a common refrain while they continue to auger into a problem set. The proof is in the pudding and those that have used it, have seen great benefit.
Do you have any expereince or pointers that you'd recommend?
I think solutions to "wild problems" like this is rooted in the wisdom of checklists. In fact, I was inspired by your article to revisit the topic with a post for today:
I've written about checklists before, but realized I hadn't been as prescriptive as I might have been.
In this case, threatcasting is a class "wild problem," and, interestingly, your response is a bit of a checklist. To simplify:
- Write down the threats you face
- Use threats as part of strategy planning
- Interject actions into programs to mitigate the risk of threats
That's a pretty good start to a Threatcasting List.
To my eyes, I'd add a few things to the list:
1) Simulation. The issue most companies have with threat anticipation is that there are so many of them. Simulation helps narrow down the ones that matter. For example, the Mercedes AMG Formula One team for years and they use simulation for every week to reduce tactics to the most important.
2) Prioritize Threats. You can't deal with every threat. Prioritization matters.
3) Review with Teams. Diverse points of view help identify threats you missed.
One of the potential problems of this type of thinking is longtermism. It's something we've had trouble with and could be much more of a problem in the future.
I agree. The benefit is that I've never seen applied futures be aligned with effective altruism. It's less morally based and much more pragmatic. Longtermism is often very impractical and self righteous.
That's probably a good idea but I think that can also be a problem. I'm having discussions with people now about the economy. They have a lot of theories about how the economy should work and the reasons why it's not. Mainly through the idea of thinking that we need to have a good economy in 10 years. But they discount the problem of people right now.
I'm curious if you uncovered some concrete steps to implement threatcasting in an organization. For example, the word / idea "simulation" keeps running through my mind as I read about this concept, which I liked very much. But I'm left wondering what you suggest leaders do to implement threatcasting.
Great thinking, as always!
That's the million dollar question for sure. There've been a couple ways I've found successful.
The first was writing them into R&D proposals to help the customer better define their threat portfolio. This is specifically Defense focused because the time horizon lines up. This has worked a handful of times and has always been a great customer pleaser.
The second was work in getting it tied into the strategy development sessions. You can do portfolios of futures throughout the year and continue to feed, refine, and update strategy.
A third is to help use them to reduce risk or identify opportunities to improve program performance. This helps for really big programs or product lines where there are a lot of known unknowns or worries bout the unknown unknowns.
Master Card, Intel and Cisco have used Threatcasting and Futurecasting quite extensively over the past years and have really made it part of their strategy and risk management programs.
The IRS, Secret Service, and Accountability Office of the US government also use it to maintain agility and force readiness.
It's not easy though. "We already do that." is a common refrain while they continue to auger into a problem set. The proof is in the pudding and those that have used it, have seen great benefit.
Do you have any expereince or pointers that you'd recommend?
I think solutions to "wild problems" like this is rooted in the wisdom of checklists. In fact, I was inspired by your article to revisit the topic with a post for today:
https://technosapien.substack.com/p/wild-leadership-problems-and-how
I've written about checklists before, but realized I hadn't been as prescriptive as I might have been.
In this case, threatcasting is a class "wild problem," and, interestingly, your response is a bit of a checklist. To simplify:
- Write down the threats you face
- Use threats as part of strategy planning
- Interject actions into programs to mitigate the risk of threats
That's a pretty good start to a Threatcasting List.
To my eyes, I'd add a few things to the list:
1) Simulation. The issue most companies have with threat anticipation is that there are so many of them. Simulation helps narrow down the ones that matter. For example, the Mercedes AMG Formula One team for years and they use simulation for every week to reduce tactics to the most important.
2) Prioritize Threats. You can't deal with every threat. Prioritization matters.
3) Review with Teams. Diverse points of view help identify threats you missed.
Those are three that spring to mind.
Maybe we should write a post about it :)
Great points!
One of the potential problems of this type of thinking is longtermism. It's something we've had trouble with and could be much more of a problem in the future.
I agree. The benefit is that I've never seen applied futures be aligned with effective altruism. It's less morally based and much more pragmatic. Longtermism is often very impractical and self righteous.
I'll add that we constrain to 10 to 15 years and focus on specific topics.
That's probably a good idea but I think that can also be a problem. I'm having discussions with people now about the economy. They have a lot of theories about how the economy should work and the reasons why it's not. Mainly through the idea of thinking that we need to have a good economy in 10 years. But they discount the problem of people right now.