I love the crashes. I mean, I don't love how horrible it is for folks to live through, but they are endlessly fascinating. I remember that 1987 crash where we were studying stocks in social studies class, but I didn't really get what was going on until much later. 2008, I was way more focused on growing small businesses and not the market, but I studied up during the 2010s and really dove in. I love studying those cycles.
I wonder what you’d struggle to do a deep dive on. Loved this one brother. Saved for reference after tax return season. I’m diversified and well-invested but you’ve still given me a few more ideas per usual. Thank you
I appreciate that. Just had dinner with a group of guys and talked these topics and shared advice. Focus was on generational growth… how to set our kids up without making it too easy.
On a different note, what's a topic I should dive into next?
How about the controversial benefits of deliberate cold exposure? Lot of debate on pros vs cons and there are inherent risks involved, particularly with certain medical conditions.
I think he’s always a great example of the modern human capacity, particularly in his training of others. He’s also a great example of misapplications when people jump in the metaphorical deep end of extreme training without oversight or progression from a safer starting point to build the capacity progressively over time.
Lol. Valid. You should check out the yeildmax series of funds then. The big thing to watch out for is how those ETF values have dropped over time though.
All the big guys are using algorithms and now retail is asking grok... will emotion influence it as much going forward? Maybe the machines will level the field to fundamentals?
A very conservative website but always yields some pearls that might be of interest with respect to this piece.
“ Together, these forces create a market environment where perception trumps reality. Investors are betting the Fed has their back, technology will change everything, and liquidity will remain plentiful.
But history reminds us that narratives eventually give way to fundamentals.‘“
There's always that for certain. I wrote this over a month ago and then scheduled it. In the intervening time I'm seeing more detachment and that worries me.
The psychology of it is difficult to manage if your actively trading while also working a regular job. Anything requiring precise timing or adaptive management is almost impossible and not worth the stress.
I go through bursts of interest/enthusiasm in the topic and have wins and losses with a variety of strategies and instruments but at the end of it all, regular investment into an index fund that tracks the market is waaay less stress and effort.
That's where I'm at. I have a balanced portfolio. I rebalance every so often, and I have a few investments that I 'play' with to scratch that interest 'itch' while not risking the entire portfolio.
in one sense the stock market does have a life of its own, which insulates it from what Capt. Chaos does, but since it is also based on emotion, it is susceptible to whatever mania is drives the consciousness of a substantial number of people. The market affects all those who are invested in the 'market'. Those folks who do not own investments or hold market positions ( a large part of the working class who may not have 401k's) simply are compelled to go to work everyday in blind faith that the market will not crash and take everything down with it, as it has done in the past. In a capitalist system, we are all invested in the outcome. In a more managed authoritarian/socialist system, are the risks fewer or greater ?
It's a good point. The 2008 crash actually had impact on other countries as well. We are a global market so you really can't get away from it. Even socialist countries can't, as Venezuela has learned as it's crashed it's economy because of socialism. The USSR collapsed, not because it was overthrown, but because it's markets and economy just suffocated under communism. China only started to grow because they began embracing free market economics. But back to your observation, everyone has always been tied to the larger system whether it was under Emperor Nero, Joseph Stalin, or a President.
thank you, sir. I do feel like "we are all in it together" and it also feels like it keeps getting more complex. But that just may be my age. Call me a Luddite !
I love the crashes. I mean, I don't love how horrible it is for folks to live through, but they are endlessly fascinating. I remember that 1987 crash where we were studying stocks in social studies class, but I didn't really get what was going on until much later. 2008, I was way more focused on growing small businesses and not the market, but I studied up during the 2010s and really dove in. I love studying those cycles.
It's fascinating for sure how how to diversify without losing out on growth.
I wonder what you’d struggle to do a deep dive on. Loved this one brother. Saved for reference after tax return season. I’m diversified and well-invested but you’ve still given me a few more ideas per usual. Thank you
I appreciate that. Just had dinner with a group of guys and talked these topics and shared advice. Focus was on generational growth… how to set our kids up without making it too easy.
On a different note, what's a topic I should dive into next?
How about the controversial benefits of deliberate cold exposure? Lot of debate on pros vs cons and there are inherent risks involved, particularly with certain medical conditions.
Tie in Wim Hoff?
I think he’s always a great example of the modern human capacity, particularly in his training of others. He’s also a great example of misapplications when people jump in the metaphorical deep end of extreme training without oversight or progression from a safer starting point to build the capacity progressively over time.
I would love to get paid 5k/month on a 200k investment, which is 60k/year or 30% ROI.
Lol. Valid. You should check out the yeildmax series of funds then. The big thing to watch out for is how those ETF values have dropped over time though.
All the big guys are using algorithms and now retail is asking grok... will emotion influence it as much going forward? Maybe the machines will level the field to fundamentals?
I've wondered about this too. Most of our big crashes were emotional and illogical before and during. Algos aren't… it might be what stops crashes.
A very conservative website but always yields some pearls that might be of interest with respect to this piece.
“ Together, these forces create a market environment where perception trumps reality. Investors are betting the Fed has their back, technology will change everything, and liquidity will remain plentiful.
But history reminds us that narratives eventually give way to fundamentals.‘“
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/markets-detached-economic-fundamentals
There's always that for certain. I wrote this over a month ago and then scheduled it. In the intervening time I'm seeing more detachment and that worries me.
The psychology of it is difficult to manage if your actively trading while also working a regular job. Anything requiring precise timing or adaptive management is almost impossible and not worth the stress.
I go through bursts of interest/enthusiasm in the topic and have wins and losses with a variety of strategies and instruments but at the end of it all, regular investment into an index fund that tracks the market is waaay less stress and effort.
That's where I'm at. I have a balanced portfolio. I rebalance every so often, and I have a few investments that I 'play' with to scratch that interest 'itch' while not risking the entire portfolio.
in one sense the stock market does have a life of its own, which insulates it from what Capt. Chaos does, but since it is also based on emotion, it is susceptible to whatever mania is drives the consciousness of a substantial number of people. The market affects all those who are invested in the 'market'. Those folks who do not own investments or hold market positions ( a large part of the working class who may not have 401k's) simply are compelled to go to work everyday in blind faith that the market will not crash and take everything down with it, as it has done in the past. In a capitalist system, we are all invested in the outcome. In a more managed authoritarian/socialist system, are the risks fewer or greater ?
It's a good point. The 2008 crash actually had impact on other countries as well. We are a global market so you really can't get away from it. Even socialist countries can't, as Venezuela has learned as it's crashed it's economy because of socialism. The USSR collapsed, not because it was overthrown, but because it's markets and economy just suffocated under communism. China only started to grow because they began embracing free market economics. But back to your observation, everyone has always been tied to the larger system whether it was under Emperor Nero, Joseph Stalin, or a President.
thank you, sir. I do feel like "we are all in it together" and it also feels like it keeps getting more complex. But that just may be my age. Call me a Luddite !
Just subbed and recommended the newsletter
Steve Kang has been recommending your stuff for a while :)
Appreciate the mention here!